Let’s take a look at a few NFL Week 15 games that already have seen some sharp betting action.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) are still in the hunt for the playoffs but will likely need to win their final three games (and get some help). New England just got smoked by the Rams 24-3, failing to cover as five-point road ’dogs. The Dolphins (8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS) hold the seventh and final playoff seed but need to keep winning with several teams creeping up behind them. Miami just fell to the Chiefs 33-27, although the Fish managed to cover as seven-point home ’dogs.
This line opened with the Dolphins listed as 2.5-point home favorites. The public has given up on New England and is rushing to the window to back Miami at home laying a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting we’ve seen the line remain frozen at -2.5 and even briefly dip to 2 at some shops, signaling some respected money backing the Pats plus the points.
New England has value as divisional ’dog (55 percent ATS this year), a short road dog +6 or less (63 percent ATS) and a buy-low ’dog off a 20-point blowout loss or more (59 percent ATS). The Patriots also have a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Dolphins played Sunday. Pros have also hit this Under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. This matches a late-season divisional under trend. Both teams have been profitable to the under, with the Patriots 9-5 and Dolphins 8-5.
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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) finally snapped their six-game losing skid, beating the Texans 36-7 and as one-point home ’dogs. The Vikings (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) fell to the Bucs 26-14, failing to cover as 6.5-point road ’dogs.
Minnesota opened as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split. Despite this even ticket count, we’ve seen the line drop from Vikings -3.5 to -3. This signals some wiseguy money gravitating to the Bears. Chicago has value as a road divisional dog and a short road dog +6 or less. We’ve also seen some Under money show up, dropping the total from 47 to 46. The Vikings have been an Over team this season (8-4-1) while the Bears have been profitable to the Under (8-5).
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
The Chiefs (12-1 SU, 6-7 SU) have won eight straight and just took down the Dolphins 33-27 as seven-point road favorites. The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up but 0-5 ATS over their last five games. The Saints (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) just saw their nine-game winning streak end, falling to the Eagles 24-21 and losing straight up as 7.5-point road favorites.
The Chiefs opened anywhere between -3 and -4. The public has no issue laying this number as Patrick Mahomes and Co. are an auto-bet for recreational bettors every week. However, respected money has come down on the Saints at +4, causing several shops to drop back down to 3.5.
New Orleans has value as a short home ’dog off a loss. The Saints also have elevated contrarian value as they are receiving a clear minority of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet game. Keep an eye on the status of Saints quarterback Drew Brees. There is an outside shot he could return for this game. If he can’t, New Orleans will once again turn to Taysom Hill.
Originally published at https://nypost.com/2020/12/16/sharp-picks-for-betting-nfl-week-15/ on .